My First Published Article

Finally got an article published. Here it is:

http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/tips.php

I chose a controversial subject for my first article, and it has gone over well, sparking debates and provoking thought. I am very excited about this.

Life After Chase in Deeper Leagues

In my league I was just clinging to a playoff berth, and the loss of Chase Utley hurts a lot. However I happen to have BJ Upton sitting on the bench so hopefully he can fill in admirably until Utley's return. But what about those guys in the 12-14 team leagues without a suitable backup? In these deeper situations, finding a diamond in the rough can be hard to find. Below are my top 3 deeper candidates for a serviceable 2nd baseman for the next few weeks:

Tadahito Iguchi- 2B Phillies- Let's start with the obvious, the man who will be replacing Chase in the lineup. I wrote this first blurb Friday night, before Iguchi’s solid debut for the Phils. Iguchi figures to play every day and hit 6th in the Phillies' lineup. Iguchi has struggled at times this year, but he finds himself in a position to rake in RBI in the middle of the Phillies lineup. Don't look for him to bolster your team's batting average, but if you need solid production in RBIs, a few surprising homers and steals here or there, Iguchi might fill the void. The Phillies have a solid matchup going forward, as they play the Cubs, Brewers, Marlins, Nationals, Braves and Pirates.

Maicer Izturis- Util Angels- A favorite pickup by many (including myself) after Figgins's injury early on, Maicer himself succumbed to an injury and lost time and favor among fantasy owners. He is back to playing almost every day and only hit .409 in the last week. He was stealing bases early on but that production has slowed of late. Still he is a decent source of batting average and speed in the immediate future. He faces the Yankees, Toronto twice and Seattle in the next month.

Mark Grudzielanek- 2B Royals- In the Royals' recent offensive surge, Grudzielanek has hit .433 in the last month. The Royals have a favorable schedule in the next month- playing series with the Yankees, Texas, Oakland, and the White Sox. While it is unlikely that he will continue to hit .400 going forward, he should post decent average and RBI numbers as long as the Royals keep hitting. The Royals face the lowly Rangers, Yankees and Blue Jays among their next month opponents.

Top 5 Running Backs

I wrote this article as an audition for a columnist position at a fantasy site:

Top 5 RBs:

1. LT- No-brainer here. The poster boy for consistency at the position is again a consensus top pick after being supplanted by Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander last season in most drafts. Even in his banged up "down year" in '05, LT still scored 20 TDs. While the continued maturation of Philip Rivers and other weapons might cut into his goal line looks, LT's floor is higher than the ceiling of other top 10 backs. #1 pick is a no-stress environment this year.

2. Steven Jackson- The 2nd pick this year is possibly the most painful pick in the draft. Both SJax and Larry Johnson are worthy of consideration. I give SJax the nod here because of several factors:
1. Orlando Pace return at OLine
2. Larry Johnson's potential holdout/trade
3. St Louis's explosive offense bodes well for SJax's scoring opportunities
4. SJax is much more active in the passing game
Jackson also has less wear than Larry Johnson, and plays for a better team top to bottom. For all of these reasons, Jackson is the pick.

3. Larry Johnson- My rationale for taking SJax over LJ may have one believing that LJ is a hack. However when picking between 2 similar players at the top, one must split hairs, and that is what I have done above. Larry Johnson has been downright dominant since besting Priest Holmes, averaging 1.25 TDs/game over the past 2 seasons. When you factor in the fact that he spent half of the '05 season splitting carries with Priest Holmes, that number is astounding. Look for Herm Edwards to proceed with a heavy dose of LJ in an attempt to stabilize the play of their inexperienced QB position. As for the return of Priest Holmes, this can be broken down into best and worst case scenarios:
Best Case Scenario: Priest Holmes is just a ploy to get LJ to agree to terms and come to camp and won't see the field.
Worst Case Scenario: Priest Holmes is a 3rd down back to help rest LJ's weary legs after last year's wear and tear.

4. Frank Gore- I am not as high on Gore as most, as I believe he is one of the more likely of the top backs to take a step back. However it is hard to ignore his stellar year last year. It will certainly be hard for him to repeat his 5.4 YPC average, but San Francisco had arguably the best offseason of anyone. This will translate to a great young offense in San Fran. However this improvement is a double-edged sword. An improved passing game coupled with Gore's impotence at the goal line last year will undoubtedly lead to fewer TDs, but this loss is offset by his continued presence in an improved passing game. He is even more valuable in PPR formats.

5. Brian Westbrook- Surprise! I have Westbrook higher on my board than most for several reasons. Word is at print that McNabb is close to 100% at camp. This bodes well for the entire explosive Eagles offense, especially Westy. Westbrook's 2nd half explosion was not due to Jeff Garcia's presence as some pundits would argue. It was in fact due to OC Marty Morningwig was handed playcalling duties down the stretch, and he made Westbrook the focal point of the offense. He figures to continue that role this season, and Westbrook will again be a dual threat much like the aforementioned Frank Gore. The Eagles' use the screen pass more often and better than almost any other team, and Westbrook reaps the benefits. Tony Hunt may cut into goal line carries, so monitor this situation at camp. Still, his shifty nature and great hands will keep him on the field near the paint. Durability has always been and is still a concern for Westbrook, but he is 100% coming into camp. He showed remarkable toughness last season and actually held up well to his increased load last season. He is a monster in all formats, but does most damage in PPR leagues.

So, I Caused Chase Utley's Injury... Direct your Hatemail here

I will now tell you the whole long, sad tale. I am in a league with my close high school friends. My one friend Pat is a rookie in fantasy sports this year, and he won football last season in his first time ever playing. His team name for that league was "the tripod" named for his triback system. Well last week in baseball I acquired Roy Oswalt and so it gave me 3 awesome starters- Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, and John Lackey. I renamed my team "The Tripod" as a tongue in cheek reference to my friend.

My friend was furious when he saw that, and posted to the boards "This week you will be cursed by the fantasy gods and lose big time." And lo and behold, 3 days later, Utley goes down.

So yeah, this is all my fault.

This is eerie because in football, I traded for LT in the middle of the season. This same friend Pat told me that the fantasy gods would not allow my team to get this good. The very next weekend McNabb went down for the year along with Kevin Jones, 2 of my best players. This guy's hexing my teams really does suck.

Uhhh... Is This Thing On?

So this is my first post in this new blog. I figured out the interface pretty quick, but one question still burns in my mind: will anyone even read this thing? Well it doesn't really matter to me, I'm going to write it anyway. I opened this blog on a whim; I saw an ad for free blogs on Sporting News and signed up. I don't even really know what specifically I want this blog to be, so I'm going to just start writing whatever pops into my mind.

If anyone is curious about me, I am 20 years old and a student at Cornell University. I first started playing fantasy sports 8 years ago, and have been in multiple leagues and had multiple championships since. I am by no means a complete expert, but I have a lot of insight as to what makes a successful fantasy team, as well as mistakes that rookies make.

Some people might tell you that the key to winning a fantasy title is playing matchups and percentages with players. Others might tell you that the key lies in predicting breakout players on draft day. Some misguided experts may even tell you that leagues are won on draft day.

Now I am not saying that these statements are without value, and I am not saying the draft is unimportant. "Leagues are not won on draft day though they can be lost" is a quote I have always loved. But I am saying that in my humble opinion, the single greatest way to gain an edge in a fantasy league is applying a bit of economics to exploit market inefficiencies. What this means in english is you can use supply and demand, as well as buying low and selling high to acquire underpriced players at a discount.

Supply and Demand: Always load up on scarce positions for trade fodder later (RBs in football, closers in baseball)

Buy low, Sell high: Always trade a streaking no-namer for a slumping superstar. On the same token, never buy a player at the top of his value. League-losing deals have been made where a player didn't live up to his value at the top of his hotstreak when he came back to Earth.

I have always had an innate ability to judge players due for a turnaround. This skill has always helped me tweak my team in midseason. Recently I dumped the slumping Kazmat and the walking bonespur Troy Glaus for Roy Oswalt. Oswalt is a perennial top 5 starter who is at the bottom of his value right now, so for me it was a no brainer. But for those of you who don't have this innate ability to judge players, I'm listing below a few of my "hot picks" for buying low and selling high. Eventually when I have more time and more energy I'll list some of my rules and theories on trading, but that will not be today. Hopefully these will do for now:

Buy Low:

Roy Oswalt: Having read moneyball, I now realize that ERA is essentially meaningless in telling how a pitcher is pitching, and that looking at hit rate is much more telling. This is because a pitcher can simply be unlucky if a more-than-normal number of his balls put in play fall for hits. Oswalt falls under this category during his late struggles, so don't worry about his prospects for the future once he overcomes this minor injury.

Mark Teixera: This guy really perplexes me, he can look so good and so bad depending on which week you see him. However a good motto I always go by is "Trust a name brand product," and Tex is no exception. A change of scenery seems imminent, and there is nowhere for him to go but up. His career .290 after break BA (as compared to .279 before) is promising as well.

Lance Berkman: 2nd on the list of underproducing 1st basemen who live in Texas, Berkman came on strong for a few weeks in late June, but has gone back down the tubes of late. I still think he is better than the 25-ish HRs he is on pace for, and the name brand rule still applies. He really does have a lot more upside than downside at this point if you can get him at a discount.

Sell High:

Eric Byrnes: I will start by stating the obvious: Eric Byrnes is not a top 25 fantasy player. His recent surge has been largely due to his 12 stolen bases in the last month. Couple this with a mediocre .278 July batting average and a career .237 line after the all-star break and I am ducking for cover. Trade him in for a proven commodity and you won't regret it when the inevitable other foot falls.

Jorge Posada: Okay, so Posada is having a magical season. But am I the only one who is skeptical that a 35 year old catcher suddenly beats his career BA by 60 points? Am I the only one who doubts he'll hit .300 going forward? At this point Posada's value might be at an all time high and it would be wise to pounce on a deal for him.

That's all for now. I hope you guys enjoyed the advice and found it useful. I'll update as often as I can with tips, advice, player rankings, and any other ramblings that enter my head.