So this is my first post in this new blog. I figured out the interface pretty quick, but one question still burns in my mind: will anyone even read this thing? Well it doesn't really matter to me, I'm going to write it anyway. I opened this blog on a whim; I saw an ad for free blogs on Sporting News and signed up. I don't even really know what specifically I want this blog to be, so I'm going to just start writing whatever pops into my mind.
If anyone is curious about me, I am 20 years old and a student at Cornell University. I first started playing fantasy sports 8 years ago, and have been in multiple leagues and had multiple championships since. I am by no means a complete expert, but I have a lot of insight as to what makes a successful fantasy team, as well as mistakes that rookies make.
Some people might tell you that the key to winning a fantasy title is playing matchups and percentages with players. Others might tell you that the key lies in predicting breakout players on draft day. Some misguided experts may even tell you that leagues are won on draft day.
Now I am not saying that these statements are without value, and I am not saying the draft is unimportant. "Leagues are not won on draft day though they can be lost" is a quote I have always loved. But I am saying that in my humble opinion, the single greatest way to gain an edge in a fantasy league is applying a bit of economics to exploit market inefficiencies. What this means in english is you can use supply and demand, as well as buying low and selling high to acquire underpriced players at a discount.
Supply and Demand: Always load up on scarce positions for trade fodder later (RBs in football, closers in baseball)
Buy low, Sell high: Always trade a streaking no-namer for a slumping superstar. On the same token, never buy a player at the top of his value. League-losing deals have been made where a player didn't live up to his value at the top of his hotstreak when he came back to Earth.
I have always had an innate ability to judge players due for a turnaround. This skill has always helped me tweak my team in midseason. Recently I dumped the slumping Kazmat and the walking bonespur Troy Glaus for Roy Oswalt. Oswalt is a perennial top 5 starter who is at the bottom of his value right now, so for me it was a no brainer. But for those of you who don't have this innate ability to judge players, I'm listing below a few of my "hot picks" for buying low and selling high. Eventually when I have more time and more energy I'll list some of my rules and theories on trading, but that will not be today. Hopefully these will do for now:
Buy Low:
Roy Oswalt: Having read moneyball, I now realize that ERA is essentially meaningless in telling how a pitcher is pitching, and that looking at hit rate is much more telling. This is because a pitcher can simply be unlucky if a more-than-normal number of his balls put in play fall for hits. Oswalt falls under this category during his late struggles, so don't worry about his prospects for the future once he overcomes this minor injury.
Mark Teixera: This guy really perplexes me, he can look so good and so bad depending on which week you see him. However a good motto I always go by is "Trust a name brand product," and Tex is no exception. A change of scenery seems imminent, and there is nowhere for him to go but up. His career .290 after break BA (as compared to .279 before) is promising as well.
Lance Berkman: 2nd on the list of underproducing 1st basemen who live in Texas, Berkman came on strong for a few weeks in late June, but has gone back down the tubes of late. I still think he is better than the 25-ish HRs he is on pace for, and the name brand rule still applies. He really does have a lot more upside than downside at this point if you can get him at a discount.
Sell High:
Eric Byrnes: I will start by stating the obvious: Eric Byrnes is not a top 25 fantasy player. His recent surge has been largely due to his 12 stolen bases in the last month. Couple this with a mediocre .278 July batting average and a career .237 line after the all-star break and I am ducking for cover. Trade him in for a proven commodity and you won't regret it when the inevitable other foot falls.
Jorge Posada: Okay, so Posada is having a magical season. But am I the only one who is skeptical that a 35 year old catcher suddenly beats his career BA by 60 points? Am I the only one who doubts he'll hit .300 going forward? At this point Posada's value might be at an all time high and it would be wise to pounce on a deal for him.
That's all for now. I hope you guys enjoyed the advice and found it useful. I'll update as often as I can with tips, advice, player rankings, and any other ramblings that enter my head.
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